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Summary:

The people of the Mashreq have seen more than their share of deaths, economic losses, and instability over the past decade. As the decade-long conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic created new challenges and worsened the existing ones, economic activity declined, labor markets deteriorated, and poverty increased. These trends would overwhelm even the most advanced economies in the world. This publication identifies the impact of the Syrian conflict on economic and social outcomes in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. It combines a large number of data sources, statistical approaches, and a suite of economic models to isolate the specific impact of the Syrian conflict from that of global and regional factors, and it explicitly analyzes the mechanisms through which such an impact is manifested. The analysis suggests that a persistent short-termism in policy making has so far propagated the shock emanating from the Syrian conflict, which led to costly and ineffective service provision, lost economic opportunities, and underfunded programs. The report advocates for a fundamental shift from the short-term mitigation policies to a medium-term regional strategy to address pertinent structural problems. Moreover, as the countries in the Mashreq look toward recovery, a policy approach that takes into account the region's interconnectedness and seeks to build on it provides better prospects for the people. Such a regional approach that addresses cross-boundary issues-- including migration, trade, and infrastructure-- will require local, regional, and international commitments.

Table of Contents:

• Machine generated contents note: ch. 1 Prelude
• Mashreq: A Timeline Retrospective
• Measuring the Impact: Methodological Issues
• Analytical Strategy of This Study
• ch. 2 Mechanisms of the Fallout
• Exposure to Shocks
• Institutional Resilience
• ch. 3 Survey of the Outcomes
• Macroeconomic Trends
• Fiscal Trends
• Labor Market Trends
• Poverty Trends
• Access to Public Services and Infrastructure
• Environmental Trends
• ch. 4 Unraveling the Nature of the Impact
• Impact on GDP
• Drivers of the GDP Impact
• Distributional Implications of the GDP Impact
• Fiscal Implications of the GDP Impact
• Discussion

• ch. 5 Aftermath: A Tale of Two Futures
• Fallout Prospects
• Unilateral Approach
• Regional Approach for a Better Equilibrium
• Deus Ex Machina for the Mashreq Theater?
• A. Data Sources for Chapter 2
• B. Estimating the Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Capital Flows.

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Contributors:

Onder, Harun , author, editor

Sayed, Haneen , editor

Languages:

English

Language Notes:

Item content: English

Subjects:

Syria — History — Civil War, 2011- — Economic aspects

Syria — History — Civil War, 2011- — Social aspects

Interregionalism — Middle East

Politics and war — Middle East

General Notes:

Includes bibliographical references.
Description based on resource, viewed December 3, 2020.

Physical Description:

1 online resource

ISBNs:

9781464816154 (electronic bk.)
1464816158 (electronic bk.)
9781464816147 (print) [Invalid]
146481614X (print) [Invalid]

Other Standard Numbers:

Digital Object Identifier: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1614-7

OCLC Numbers:

1201180110

Other Control Numbers:

EBC6373312 (source: MiAaPQ)
[Unknown Type]: ybp17005497