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Summary:

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario.

Table of Contents:

• Executive summary
• What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province?
• How this study was conducted
• Implications
• Major takeaways
• Study approach
• Assumptions
• Drivers
• Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival
• Scenario B: Every clan for itself
• Scenario C: Iron fist
• Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad
• Scenario E: Path to stability
• The importance of drivers
• Indications and warnings
• Conclusions and implications.

Author/Creator:

Bruce, James B.

Contributors:

Martini, Jeffrey

Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)

United States Marine Corps Intelligence Activity

Languages:

English

Language Notes:

Item content: English

Main Work:

Whither al-Anbar Province?: five scenarios through 2011 [by Bruce, J.B.]

Other Related Resources:

Print version: Whither al-Anbar Province? [by Bruce, J.B.] (Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2010 — ISBN 9780833048035; LCCN 2010004239; OCLC Number 503596150)

Related Series:

Occasional paper (Rand Corporation); OP-278-MCIA

Subjects:

Social prediction — Iraq — Anbār (Province) — Case studies — Congresses

Social change — Iraq — Anbār (Province) — Congresses

Iraq War, 2003-2011 — Influence — Congresses

Disengagement (Military science) — Congresses

Anbār (Iraq : Province) — Politics and government — 21st century — Forecasting — Congresses

Anbār (Iraq : Province) — Social conditions — 21st century — Forecasting — Congresses

Anbār (Iraq : Province) — Economic conditions — 21st century — Forecasting — Congresses

United States

Iraq War (2003-2011)

2000-2099

Social prediction

Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.)

Disengagement (Military science)

Politics and government

Forecasting

Social conditions

Economic conditions

Social change

Iraq

Iraq — Anbār (Province)

Genres:

Conference papers and proceedings

Case studies

General Notes:

Includes bibliographical references.
Description based on: Print version record.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xiii, 12 pages).

Digital Characteristics:

text file

Call Numbers:

DS70.5.A5 B783 2010eb

ISBNs:

9780833050816 (electronic bk.)
0833050818 (electronic bk.)
9780833048035 [Invalid]
0833048031 [Invalid]

Other Standard Numbers:

Standard Technical Report Number: RAND/OP-278-MCIA

Library of Congress Control Numbers:

2010004239

OCLC Numbers:

686707068