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Summary:

"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.

Table of Contents:

• The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
• Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
• Cases: looking back
• Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
• U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
• Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
• Cases: looking ahead
• The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian
• Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
• Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
• Forecasting
• Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
• Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
• Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop
• What could be
• Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
• Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
• American scenarios
• A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama
• Afterword / Francis Fukuyama

• Notes
• Contributors
• Index.

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Contributors:

Fukuyama, Francis

Languages:

English

Language Notes:

Item content: English

Related Works:

American interest

Other Related Resources:

Print version: Blindside (Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, ©2007 — ISBN 9780815729907; ISBN 0815729901; LCCN 2007027757)

Subjects:

Emergency management — United States

International relations

Genres:

Bibliographies

General Notes:

"An American Interest Book."
Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-180) and index.
Description based on: Print version record.

Physical Description:

1 online resource.

Call Numbers:

HV551.3 .B57 2007eb

ISBNs:

9780815729891 (electronic bk.)
0815729898 (electronic bk.)
1281029637
9781281029638
9780815729907 (cloth, alk. paper) [Invalid]
0815729901 (cloth, alk. paper) [Invalid]

Library of Congress Control Numbers:

2007027757 [Invalid]

OCLC Numbers:

748519886

Other Control Numbers:

EBC3004460 (source: MiAaPQ)
[Unknown Type]: ybp2712169