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Blindside: how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics

Francis Fukuyama, editor
Resource Type:
Book (Print/Paper)
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, [2007]
Copyright:
©2007

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Summary:
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
Table of Contents:
  • The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
  • Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
  • Cases: looking back
  • Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
  • U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
  • Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
  • Cases: looking ahead
  • The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian
  • Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
  • Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
  • Forecasting
  • Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
  • Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
  • Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop
  • What could be
  • Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
  • Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
  • American scenarios
  • A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama
  • Afterword / Francis Fukuyama.
Contributors:
Fukuyama, Francis
Languages:
English
Language Notes:
Item content: English
Related Works:
American interest
Subjects:
Emergency management — United States
International relations
Emergency management
United States
General Notes:
"An American Interest Book."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 173-180) and index.
Physical Description:
vi, 198 pages ; 24 cm
Call Numbers:
HV551.3 .B57 2007
ISBNs:
9780815729907 (cloth, alk. paper)
0815729901 (cloth, alk. paper)
Library of Congress Control Numbers:
2007027757
OCLC Numbers:
156784828